In November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion. Global population growth has been the overarching demographic story for the last decades and it will remain a predominant trend for the decades to come. However, the rate of global population growth is decelerating, and underneath the global trend lies a growing demographic diversity. It is necessary to come to terms with this diversity to understand and address the increasingly varying concerns of countries about demographic shifts.
Global demographic trends mask a great demographic diversity
Over the past decades, all world regions have countries experiencing rapidly aging populations as a result of marked improvements in life expectancy and a fall in fertility rates. However, important differences remain between the world regions. Population growth is concentrated in the world’s poorest countries, which remain at a relatively early stage of the demographic transition, while some of the richest begin to see population decline.
Growing concerns about demographic shifts
The growing demographic diversity in the world means that countries have different concerns about demographic changes. While some of the poorest are concerned with meeting the needs of large, growing populations, the richest are worried about mitigating the effects of population decline. Accordingly, countries now increasingly pursue a variety of population policies with different objectives, in some instances, moving from policies focused on reducing fertility levels to policies seeking to raise birth rates.
These policy shifts are motivated by worries about the effect of demographic changes on labor shortages, economic metrics, resource availability, and culture. These demographic anxieties are apparent not only in populist media, but also the political debate, and academic literature that speaks of new “population bombs”.
The link between demographic change and the environment
One notable concern regarding demographic change is its link to the environment. The linkage is complex—far more so than is often portrayed in populist debates. The poorest countries which have the highest population growth have contributed least to historic greenhouse gas emissions – largely because of poverty, low living standards, and weak industrial development – and the richest countries that have slow or no population growth have contributed most to historic greenhouse gas emissions.
The solutions to combating climate change do not lie in coercing demographic changes, but in investing in more inclusive and greener economic development. Essentially, we need to be more careful about what we consume, how we produce what we consume, and how we distribute what we have.
Renewed focus on population policies
It is a fallacy to believe that the best way to respond to economic, social and environmental challenges posed by demographic changes is by manipulating demographic trends. It is not a feasible strategy to wait for population decline to address climate change or resource constraints, nor is it a feasible strategy to hope for population growth to address challenges to the labor market or social policy systems.
The only way forward is to adapt our economic and social systems to the current and future populations, rather than the other way round. Countries should systematically consider demographic projections to plan ahead and make necessary adjustments of social systems and infrastructure to ensure their resilience.
The centrality of reproductive rights and choices.
Regardless of demographic trends, countries cannot justify population policies that undermine human rights. Instead of focusing on a government’s idea of the perfect fertility rate, we should focus on ensuring people are able to choose if and when to have children. Rights-based population policies critically depend on universal and unrestricted access to voluntary family planning, the empowerment of women, and gender equality. While these conditions might not be sufficient to address the challenges posed by demographic changes, they are necessary.
Against this background, three key messages emerge:
- Collect and use population data for planning:
The systematic collection of population data, production of population projections, and use of population projections is essential. Without it, countries can not accurately plan for the unfolding demographic changes.
- Build resilient institutions and societies:
Many policy makers are reluctant to take potentially unpopular decisions today to prevent challenges that will materialize only down the road. Yet, building societies that are resilient to and can thrive amidst demographic change requires that countries systematically anticipate and plan for demographic changes, well in advance.
- Pursue people-centered population policies:
Instead of top-down population policies that focus on ill-defined and elusive demographic targets, countries should pursue people-centered population policies. Such policies focus on empowering people to achieve their reproductive aspirations through the realization of sexual and reproductive health and rights. They support rather than undermine fundamental human rights more broadly.
About the author and UNFPA:
Michael Herrmann is the senior advisor in economics and demography for the UNFPA. As the UN’s go-to-agency on population matters, UNFPA is supporting countries in the collection and use of population data. Today, it is represented in more than 150 countries, withmore than 50 years of experience in the field. In addition to working with countries that have concerns about high fertility and population growth, UNFPA has now launched a Demographic Resilience Programme that focuses also on countries that have concerns about population aging and population decline, low fertility and accelerating migration.
